They’re In:
Senator Kamala Harris:
Resume: US Senator from California since 2017; Attorney General of California from 2011-2017; District Attorney of San Francisco from 2004-2011.
Kamala Harris has been a rising star in the Democratic party since her days as the District Attorney of San Francisco, as she rose up the political ladder of the most powerful Democratic state in the country. Harris was born in Oakland, the daughter of immigrants, and attending Howard University before returning back to Oakland and becoming a prosecutor. As District Attorney and Attorney General, Harris tried to straddle the line between her more liberal policy positions and her role as the top watchdog in the district and the state. This has drawn praise and criticism from both sides of the aisle, saying that being a compassionate prosecutor isn’t possible and that her stances on the issues have wavered throughout her career. In 2016, Harris was elected to the Senate and has spent the last two years making a name for herself, mostly due to her harsh and rapid-fire questioning of Trump nominees and officials.
Does she have a chance?
Yes. Harris is well liked in the Democratic party and has the name recognition to do well early on. Harris’ campaign seems centered around her career of fighting for “justice, equality, and democracy”. Most likely, the Harris campaign will be focused on states with high black populations and other minority states. Even her campaign logo is a call-back to the campaign colors of Shirley Chisholm, the first black woman to run for President.
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro:
Resume: Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 2014-2017; Mayor of San Antonio, Texas from 2009-2014; San Antonio City Councilor from 2001-2005.
Julian Castro has been a rising star in the Democratic party for years, giving an impressive keynote address as the 2012 Democratic Convention and becoming a member of President Obama’s Cabinet soon after. Castro comes from a very politically active family. His mom ran for City Council in San Antonio and his twin brother, Joaquin Castro, is now a Congressman from Texas’ 20th district. Castro became the youngest city councilor in San Antonio history in 2001 and was a fairly popular mayor. Castro invested heavily in education and helping the large Hispanic community in SA. After his keynote address in 2012, Castro signed on as HUD Secretary in 2014 under Obama and served until President Trump was sworn in. Castro launched an Exploratory Committee for President in December and officially started his campaign on January 12th with a rally in San Antonio. Castro talked a lot about his mother and his father, who were immigrants to the United States as young children. Castro’s campaign was obviously catered to the Latino community, with mariachi music playing at the campaign launch and the accent over “Julian” emphasized in his campaign logo.
Does he have a chance?
Castro is definitely a strong contender, with about 3,000 people showing up to his campaign launch, and will most likely do well in states with high Latino populations, such as Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and his home state of Texas. He has a strong record as a Mayor and then Cabinet official and he has decently high name-recognition levels compared to some other contenders. Castro’s message has to do a lot with immigration, housing, and equal opportunity for everyone. His campaign slogan, “One Nation. One Destiny” sums it up pretty well.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
Resume: US Representative from Hawaii’s 2nd district since 2013; Honolulu City Councilor from 2011-2012; State Representative from Hawaii’s 2002-2004; veteran.
Tulsi Gabbard became the third Democrat to launch a Presidential campaign on January 11th on CNN, prompting both excitement and anger from across both parties. Gabbard is a controversial figure, being a young, ethnic, and smart Democrat who is seen as a rising star. But, her past stances on social and foreign issues have proven hard for her to overcome, such as her adamant opposition to gay marriage up until 2012 and her coziness with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Gabbard was a state Rep. in Hawaii’s legislature, the youngest state legislator in the country at age 21, when she enlisted in the Hawaii National Guard in 2003. She left her political career to fight in the war in Iraq, but Gabbard came back as a Honolulu City Councilwoman and then as a Congresswoman beginning in 2013. Gabbard drew attacks when she met with President Assad in 2017 and declared that she opposes removing him from power. In 2016, Gabbard resigned as co-chair of the Democratic National Committee and endorsed Bernie Sanders for President. Gabbard became one of his most prominent surrogates and was on the shortlist as a possible VP for the Sanders campaign. Overall, Gabbard is hard to figure out politically and this could prove hard to explain on the campaign trail.
Does she have a chance?
A very small one. Gabbard has low name-recognition and her statements on gay rights and Assad will definitely hurt her in the Democratic primaries, as she tries to win over the younger, more racially and sexually diverse electorate. The main themes of Gabbard’s campaign seem to be about “leading through love” and the cost of wars across the globe. Gabbard seems intent on using her experience in the military to her advantage and make foreign policy a major theme in her campaign. Gabbard’s positions on issues may hurt her with the more well-informed voters and party bosses. But, Gabbard may prove to be an appealing candidate, as a person of color, a woman, and her record as a veteran.
Former Rep. John Delaney
Resume: US Representative from Maryland’s 6th district from 2013-2019; businessman.
While most candidates spend 3 years tip-toeing around the question of whether they are going to run or not, Congressman John Delaney jumped into the race July of 2017. Delaney launched his campaign hoping to raise his national profile early on, beating out the bigger Democratic names such as Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren. So far, it’s worked. Delaney has spent the last year and a half barnstorming Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping for an early win in those contests. He’s really rich, with a net worth of $92.6 million dollars that he has pumped into early TV ads and an aggressive ground game. Despite his wealth, Delaney is playing up his working-class roots and is hoping his message of bipartisanship and common sense resonates with Iowans and the Democratic electorate. His ads are focused on retail-politics and working with anyone to get things done. His opening ad, which first aired during the 2018 Super Bowl in Iowa, was this:
Does he have a chance?
He does, but not a huge one. Delaney has spent a lot of time in Iowa and if he’s still in by caucus time, he could win the state. Iowa’s a state where you have to put in the work and time to win it, and Delaney has had a lot of time to meet with people in the state. Another thing that could help his candidacy is that he endorsed dozens of Democratic candidates for Iowa Senate this November, which could turn into small but significant endorsements for him down the road. A new poll shows that only 21% of Iowans don’t know his name, but we don’t know how many of the people who DO know him support him.
Exploring a Bid:
Mayor Pete Buttigieg
(BOOT-edge-edge)
Resume: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana since 2012; veteran.
If you have no idea who “Mayor Pete” is, don’t worry. You’re not alone. The mayor of South Bend, Indiana isn’t exactly a high profile Democratic politician, but he’s been a quietly-rising star for years. Buttigieg was elected mayor of South Bend in 2012, after being a Naval intelligence officer and Buttigieg returned to fight in Afganistan in 2013, a year into his job a mayor. Buttigieg has completely turned South Bend around and is one of the most successful and popular mayors in the country. He came out a gay in 2015 in a letter to the city and married two years later, becoming the only openly gay municipal executive in Indiana. Then, in 2017, Buttigieg began his first foray into national politics, running for Chairman of the Democratic National Committee which raised his stock in the Democratic party and the national conversation. Now, Buttigieg is officially exploring a bid for President:
Does he have a chance?
He’s a longshot, with basically no national name-recognition, a small political resume, and very few connections to the Democratic party bigwigs. But, Buttigieg’s got a compelling backstory, a record of success in South Bend, he’s a millennial, he’s a veteran, and he’s gay. These things could help Buttigieg as he seeks the highest office in the land and could make him the breakout star of 2020. Of all of the low-tier candidates that have announced a bid/exploratory committee, Buttigieg is the most likely to become a real contender.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Resume: US Senator from New York since 2009; US Representative from New York’s 20th district from 2007-2009.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the most recent Democrat to launch an exploratory committee for President, making the news public last night on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. Gillibrand was a Congresswoman from upstate New York, staking out a moderate record in the House. Then, when Hillary Clinton was named Secretary of State by President Obama, Kirsten Gillibrand was tapped to replace her in the Senate. There, Gillibrand has become more liberal, shifting her stances on guns and immigration. Now, Gillibrand only votes with President Trump 11% of the time, the least of any Senator. Gillibrand is also a leading voice of women’s issues and sexual assault, becoming one of the most prominent voices that called for Senator Al Franken’s resignation last year. Gillibrand has already made the themes of her campaign clear: bipartisanship(an obvious nod to her more moderate record in the House and her upstate New York roots), healthcare, education, and women’s rights.
Does she have a chance?
Yep. She’s consistently in the middle of the pack in polling and has a compelling message against Trump and on women’s issues. The Gillibrand base is probably mostly consisted of angry suburban women, who flocked to the Democratic party in the 2018 midterms, and who will be essential to Democratic victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Gillibrand has some work to do in terms of name-recognition and setting herself apart from the field, but she will be a strong contender.
Senator Elizabeth Warren
Resume: US Senator from Massachusetts since 2014; Advisor to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau from 2010-2011; college professor.
Elizabeth Warren made a huge announcement on the last day of 2018, announcing an Exploratory Committee to run for President in 2020. Warren became the first major candidate to announce any kind of official organization related to a run, helping her re-introduce herself to the American people. Warren is one of the most liberal senators in Washington, a leading voice on the fight against Wall Street corruption, campaign finance reform, and healthcare. Probably the most important things to note about Warren’s exploratory committee is the way that she has begun the campaign so strong. Warren had some issues back in October when she botched the release of DNA tests that said that she was in fact Native American, though only it was only 1% of her DNA. Warren has also faced issues with likability, mostly because she seems to be constantly working, but seems to have moved past them pretty well. Warren’s announcement played up her rural Oklahoma roots, something that could help her win back more rural states, and her fights for the middle-class. Warren’s committee has also helped her show her more down-to-earth and laid back personality, most famously when she drank a beer while on an Instagram Live back in December.
Does she have a chance?
Yes! Warren consistently polls in the top-tier of candidates and I’m sure that her committee rollout has helped her too. Warren’s path to the nomination is probably through rural, white, working-class states where her message of economic equality and her Oklahoma roots can help her. Warren is also probably the early favorite to win the New Hampshire primary, hailing from the neighboring state of Massachusetts, and an early win could catapult her towards the nomination next summer.
Businesswoman Marianne Williamson
Resume: Businesswoman; Independent candidate for Congress in 2014; Friend of Oprah.
Williamson is a dark horse candidate, with relatively low name recognition and with no political experience other than a failed bid for Congress in California in 2014. Williamson made waves in November, launching an Exploratory Committee for a possible Presidential bid. Now, Williamson has an official announcement scheduled in January 28th in Las Angeles. She’s an author, activist, businesswoman, and has been very vocal about politics in recent years. If she runs, she’d be an underdog, but her millions could help her raise her name recognition and maybe gain traction with voters. Her campaign message is simple: let’s take back this country:
Does she have a chance?
No. But, I said that about another businessperson who launched an improbable campaign (Donald Trump).
They’re Out:
Former State Senator Richard Ojeda
Resume: State Senator from West Virginia’s 7th district from 2017-2019; Democratic candidate for Congress in 2018; veteran.
Ojeda left the Democratic field on January 25th, saying that the lack of media coverage of his campaign wasn’t letting his message get enough attention. Ojeda becomes the first candidate to leave the race and returns back to West Virginia, possibly to run for Governor or Senate in 2020. Ojeda would be a top-tier recruit for those races, especially against the unpopular incumbent, Republican, and party-switching Governor, Jim Justice.
Zeigler For President 